National Study of BRT Development Outcomes

Bus rapid transit (BRT) is poised to become the “next big thing” in public transit. From virtually no systems a generation ago, there are now 19 lines operating with at least seven under construction and more than 20 in the planning stages. BRT is gaining popularity because of its combination of low capital cost and potential for high levels of benefits. But are they effective in attracting development? And, given the variation in design between systems, do development outcomes along BRT corridors and at stations vary by type of system? To answer these questions, we will conduct a national study…

Bus rapid transit (BRT) is poised to become the “next big thing” in public transit. From virtually no systems a generation ago, there are now 19 lines operating with at least seven under construction and more than 20 in the planning stages. BRT is gaining popularity because of its combination of low capital cost and potential for high levels of benefits. But are they effective in attracting development? And, given the variation in design between systems, do development outcomes along BRT corridors and at stations vary by type of system?

To answer these questions, we will conduct a national study of all 19 BRT systems in place through 2011. We will rate each BRT system using the Institute for Transportation and Development framework, and classify them into types by shared characteristics (which we call “flavors”). Using a quasi-experimental compare-and-contrast research design, we will compare jobs, population and households, and housing units before and after BRT implementation relative to a control corridor and the corridor’s metropolitan context. Using spatial regression analysis we will evaluate the relationship between BRT and employment controlling for socioeconomic, location and other factors. Using hedonic analysis, we will compare market differences in terms of nonresidential and apartment residential rents and vacancy rates with respect to BRT station proximity, and whether there are variations with respect to BRT flavor. A jobs-housing balance analysis will tie together the residential and non-residential analyses. Our units of analysis will be 2010 census blocks and their assemblages as data allow within one-eighth mile buffers, out to two miles. We will use Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, and CoStar data.

The final products will include case studies of each BRT, and meta-assessments of whether and the extent to which BRT attracts development and if so whether outcomes vary by BRT flavor. If there is no difference between flavors then MPOs might consider less costly alternatives. If there are large differences then more expensive BRT investments may be warranted.